Ensemble forecasts generate multiple weather predictions to account for uncertainties. Imagine running a weather model many times, each with slightly different starting conditions. By analyzing the range of these forecasts, we gain a better understanding of the most likely weather scenario and its potential variability.
The charts here use data from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), a version of the GFS model run 30 times to provide this range of forecasts. pen_spark
Uses GEFS data with updates at 07:15 GMT, 13:15 GMT, 19:15 GMT, 01:15 GMT
Runs out to 16 days ahead
Unsettled weather for the early May bank holiday?
Hot and thundery summer?
Will the relentless rain relent for Easter?
Cheltenham Festival weather
A close to average spring?
Daily weather by email
14 day outlook
Monthly outlook
Seasonal outlook
Christmas weather
See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data